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Alpha Pro Tech. Fabricante mascarillas para covid19

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  • #61
    Análisis Técnico, fuerte compra


    • #62
      Alpha Pro Tech - Quantifying The Substantial Upside

      Oct. 1, 2020 2:33 PM ET
      About: Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. (APT)

      Florian Buschek
      Long/Short Equity, Growth At Reasonable Price, long-term horizon, small-cap

      (93 followers)Summary

      The supply/demand picture for N95 masks is extremely bullish short to midterm.

      I explicitly model the up- and downsides based on N95 sales projections and inferred gross margins.

      60% upside is my base case.

      I see no downside at the current share price.

      Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT) has been a strong performer this due to the extremely elevated demand for N-95 respirators to protect people against COVID-19. It seems that the market has decided this was all hype and all that demand will quickly go away, sending APT's earnings and stock price back to earth.

      In this piece I will argue against that narrative and make the case why APT is drastically undervalued with very low downside risk based on my model comprising N95 sales and the other business lines.

      Alpha Pro Tech manufactures and sells disposable protective apparel and building supply products in the United States and internationally. The two segments are Building Supply and Disposable Protective Apparel.

      The Building Supply segment consists of construction weatherization products, such as housewrap and synthetic roof underlayment as well as other woven material.

      The Disposable Protective Apparel segment is comprised of disposable protective garments (including shoecovers, bouffant caps, coveralls, gowns, frocks and lab coats), face masks and face shields. The most prominent part and the center of my analysis are the NIOSH (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) approved N-95 Particulate Respirators.

      It is important to note the APT's N95s are of extremely high quality. From conversations with practitioners, they are more comfortable to wear, easier to fit properly and ironically of much higher quality than 3M's N95s (ironically because the first masks of this kind were released by 3M). Because of this qualitative advantage, the masks APT produces are in high demand but basically unavailable for retail buying, instead the company has sold all its capacity into contracts and larger institutions.
      Supply and Demand Picture

      The important point to understand about N95 masks is that in contrast to simple cloth masks, they do protect both the persons wearing them and the outside world. There is a cheaper and more available version called KN95, but these are not NIOSH approved and do not offer full protection

      The general demand picture is very robust for the N95 masks market valued at US$ 2.2B in 2019. Specifically, in the acute fight against COVID-19 there is an extreme shortfall of N95s.The following excerpts illustrate the severity of this supply/demand-imbalance:
      'Even though we are making more respirators than ever before and have dramatically increased production,' 3M spokeswoman Jennifer Ehrlich said, 'the demand is more than we, and the entire industry, can supply for the foreseeable future.'

      Still, hospitals and other entities, including state governments, are having nearly as much difficulty obtaining N95s as they did early in the pandemic.

      The article goes on to describe the situation in Minnesota as an example, where the state has orders for more than 5 million N95s for hospitals, but has received only 337,000 masks so far through traditional 3M distributors. Here's further evidence for unfulfilled demand:
      Critical shortfalls of medical N95 respirators - commonly referred to as N95 masks - and other protective gear started in March, when the pandemic hit New York. Pressure on the medical supply chain continues today, and in 'many ways things have only gotten worse,' the American Medical Association's president, Dr. Susan Bailey, said in a recent statement.

      But today, hospital administrators - some of whom are facing new state orders to stockpile supplies - say they can't get as many masks as they want, and the FDA included N95s on its most recent medical supply shortage list.

      Now even if there was enough supply for today's demand, demand itself is not fixed at all and in reality much higher. The reason is that current respirators are used for far too long and reused too frequently.
      N95s were designed to be thrown away after every patient. By this July afternoon, Williams had been wearing the same one for more than two months.

      The survey asked whether nurses were still experiencing shortages of personal protective equipment, or PPE. The answer was a resounding yes. 'A third reported that they were out of or short of N95 respirators. Almost 60% of the nurses surveyed said they're re-using single-use protective equipment for five or more days, and 68% said their facilities mandate re-using the supplies,' Bloomberg reported.

      Nurses are especially exposed to this issue and we can be sure that hospitals will need large numbers of N95s as long as we have deal with the virus:
      'Re-use and decontamination of single-use personal protective equipment as the "new normal" is unacceptable, given the lack of standards and evidence of safety,' ANA President Ernest Grant, Ph.D., RN, FAAN, said Tuesday in a statement announcing the survey findings.

      The association queried more than 21,000 nurses between July 24 and Aug. 14. Fully 68% of reported that their facility requires reuse of single-use PPE, such as N95 masks. Most said they are reusing masks for at least five days if not more, with that number growing by 15% by August. When asked whether they felt unsafe reusing masks, 62% of respondents in August said that they did, and more than half (53%) reported feeling unsafe using the equipment after decontamination.

      This is an emergency solution, but it's clearly not sustainable since it can cause significant harm. There will also be additional demand from private households and retail as soon as more N95s are actually available. Finally, the rebuilding of national stockpiles will take years and I would be very surprised if the size of these stockpiles was not increased for good to be better prepared for the next pandemic. (It should be noted that N95s have a finite shelf life and thus maintaining the stockpile will require continued supply)

      All these factors are pointing to continued demand for years. So why are current producers not doubling and tripling their capacity again and again? After all, 3M (NYSE:MMM) is well on track to do so expecting to produce 2 billion respirators globally, more than a threefold increase versus 2019.

      The answer is twofold: Existing producers don't want to invest for peak demand and don't share their IP:
      Ask the PPE industry and the refrain is that without long-term guarantees that the government will keep buying respirators, N95 manufacturers are wary of investing too much, and other companies that could start making respirators or the filters for them are hesitant to do so.

      Peter Tsai, the scientist who invented a method to charge the fibers inside the respirator filter, knows why: 'It is not profitable to make respirators in the United States,' he said. It can take six months just to create one manufacturing line that makes the N95′s filter.

      'Folks aren't likely to share that information outside of their own company,' said Jeff Peterson, who now oversees NIOSH approvals. NIOSH employees may know how 3M makes its respirators and the filters inside them. But by contract, they can't tell other manufacturers how to do the same.
      Projections and Financials


      • #63
        Se pone interesante, rompe los 17


        • #64
          compra fuerte


          • #65
            Libros de Gregorio Hernández Jiménez (
            Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd.Anuncia los resultados financieros del tercer trimestre de 2020

            Correo electrónico Imprimir amigable Compartir
            05 de noviembre de 2020 09:00 ET | Fuente: Alpha Pro Tech

            Ventas netas récord de $ 30.0 millones, un aumento del 150% año tras año

            Ingresos netos del tercer trimestre de $ 8.1 millones, o $ 0.58 por acción
            • Ventas netas récord de $ 30.0 millones para los tres meses terminados el 30 de septiembre de 2020, en comparación con $ 12.0 millones para los tres meses terminados el 30 de septiembre de 2019, lo que representa un aumento de $ 18.0 millones o 149,7%
            • Ingresos netos para el tercer trimestre de 2020 de $ 8.1 millones, o $ 0.58 por acción diluida, en comparación con los ingresos netos de $ 437,000 para el mismo período de 2019, lo que representa un aumento de $ 7.7 millones o 1,755%
            • Récord de ventas de mascarillas faciales de $ 13.4 millones en el tercer trimestre de 2020, un aumento del 57.6% secuencialmente desde $ 8.5 millones en el segundo trimestre de 2020
            • Aumento de efectivo a $ 24,6 millones al 30 de septiembre de 2020, en comparación con $ 6,6 millones al 31 de diciembre de 2019, un aumento de $ 18,1 millones o 275,4%

            NOGALES, Ariz., 05 de noviembre de 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) - Alpha Pro Tech, Ltd. (NYSE American: APT) , un fabricante líder de productos diseñados para proteger a las personas, los productos y el medio ambiente, incluida la ropa de protección desechable y los productos de construcción , anunció hoy los resultados financieros del tercer trimestre y nueve meses terminados el 30 de septiembre de 2020.

            Lloyd Hoffman, presidente y director ejecutivo de Alpha Pro Tech, comentó: “Como resultado de la pandemia de COVID-19, continuamos experimentando un aumento significativo en la demanda de los clientes de nuestros productos de equipos de protección personal (PPE), específicamente máscaras faciales, y más notablemente nuestro respirador de partículas patentado N-95. Vimos un aumento dramático en los ingresos de las ventas de mascarillas durante el tercer trimestre, y actualmente esperamos que las ventas de mascarillas aumenten durante el cuarto trimestre de 2020 y en 2021. Además, las ventas de prendas de protección desechables y nuestros productos del segmento de suministros para la construcción vieron incrementos año tras año durante el tercer trimestre, continuando la tendencia desde la primera mitad de 2020. También esperamos que las ventas de estos productos muestren un crecimiento continuo en los ingresos durante el resto de 2020 y hasta 2021 ”.

            Las ventas de mascarillas han aumentado durante cada trimestre de 2020.Las ventas de mascarillas faciales del tercer trimestre de 2020 fueron de $ 13,4 millones, en comparación con $ 8,5 millones en el segundo trimestre de 2020 y $ 4,5 millones en el primer trimestre de 2020. La gerencia ahora espera que las ventas totales de mascarillas para 2020 será de aproximadamente $ 43 millones. Con base en la inversión actual y anticipada en equipo adicional y capital humano, la gerencia actualmente espera una capacidad de producción de mascarillas de $ 100 millones en 2021 (incluida la mayor capacidad de producción de la expansión de la fase 2 informada anteriormente).

            La Compañía también ha visto un aumento significativo en los pedidos de productos de protección facial de la Compañía, con aproximadamente $ 10.0 millones en pedidos de protección facial cumplidos en los primeros nueve meses de 2020. Aunque se espera que los pedidos de productos de protección facial de la Compañía permanezcan por encima de los niveles históricos a través de El cuarto trimestre de 2020, la gerencia ahora cree que, debido al aumento de la competencia resultante de las barreras de entrada relativamente bajas en el mercado de protectores faciales y un excedente de protectores faciales ahora disponibles para los consumidores, las ventas de protectores faciales durante el cuarto trimestre serán inferiores a las niveles sin precedentes experimentados en el segundo y tercer trimestre de 2020, y las ventas de protectores faciales para la segunda mitad del año serán inferiores a los aproximadamente $ 6.0 millones previstos anteriormente.